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發表於 2008-5-11 01:37:39
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原帖由 secret 於 2008-5-11 01:06 AM 發表 
個網都幾ok下wor
Some explanation on how its works (11212174.1 )
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Game results and final most probably table are calculated based on home/away and for/against mean goals during the season. It is simple, but works most of the times.
Chance of relegation, winning and position probability table are calculated using 95% of random results. That means almost nothing from past results are taken in consideration.
Chance of relegation, winning and position probability table should be consider as:
"if all teams are almost the same, and the league starts from actual position, what is the chance of a certain team to be relegated, to win the league or to end up in a certain position?"
In other words, results on relegation, winning and position probability table are pessimistic because 1st places are usually better than 8th places. One should take that in mind...
Now the tool is using the best eleven mean TSI to improve simulation of future games. Bot and terrible teams will not score and will suffer more goals.
- Now teams with less than 8 players will lose by wo (5-0 or 0-5).
- SUM of best eleven TSI is been used as a factor in future results.
About TSI use, I know it is not a very good way to measure a team. But I apply a factor that is log10 of the ration between both teams best eleven TSI's, and the impact is small unless there is a big TSI difference.
For example: the mean scored gols will be twice as much if the best eleven TSI of one team is 10 times times the other (log10(10) = 2).
This TSI factor is applied to avoid errors when the mean score goals of a certain team is low but the other team is very, very, very weak (low TSI).
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I am not sure if I understand all these, but at these some explanation on the methodology for how it works. |
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發表於 2008-5-11 14:00:05
