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發表於 2010-11-3 01:33:37
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大家好,
上星期我們以 4-2 擊敗 U20 冰島 [matchid=298835073]
這場比賽對雙方都得重要,客隊相當進取,用上 MOTS 3-4-3 Normal (3 IM + 1 WtM)
由於我們要顧慮接著的賽程 (主場對 U20 法國 後作客 U20 大洋洲) ,我們使用 PiC 3-5-2 Normal 及擺上 2 CD 來保護中路防守
我們有一個相當好的開局, 羅 (Luo) 醒番 (Xingfan) [playerid=261504446] 在 2' 創造了 Quick+Pass SE ,之後再於 32' 憑 Quick SE 我們帶來 2-0 領先
雖然 U20 冰島 在一分鐘後以自由球追回一球,我們在半場前再從右路連入兩球 (及引致退守效應) ,半場僅有 51% 控球
下半場客隊換出一名前鋒擺入右翼,而他們在初段在右路取得一個入球,不過在 2-4 之後球賽陷入悶局,我們以此比數勝出,下半場控球大家平分
比數沒有反映比賽中的難度,我想我們勝出的原因是我們有 2 CD 守位他們中路進攻,與及我們的 Quick FW - 羅 (Luo) 醒番 (Xingfan) [playerid=261504446] - 貢獻 2 球 SE 入球
上週最大意外賽果並不是我們以 PiC 擊敗 MOTS ,而是 U20 佛得角 再次以超保守戰術以 1-0 巧取 U20 丹麥 - 憑又一球 SP 入球 - 令 U20 香港 晉身 Group 5 #2
下週我們會主場迎戰 U20 法國 [matchid=298835076]
在分析這場比賽前,我們可以看看晉級形勢 - U20 法國 取得 4 分就應該能出線,而數字上他們需要 5 分;而 U20 香港需要多一倍的分數 - 8 分應該穩陣,而理論上 10 分確保出線
本組分為 4 段 -
- U20 法國 九成九出線,而他們的方針會是避免輸波以失去 7-8 分優勢,與及分配經驗點數給 19yo 球員為來季準備;
- U20 香港、 U20 大洋洲 及 U20 丹麥 爭取另一個出線席位,而 U20 香港需要作客另外 2 隊,幸而有 TS 優勢;
- 本週五 U20 冰島 vs U20 佛得角 (#5 vs #6) 的勝方亦有機會爭取出線;
- 榜尾 2 隊已經放棄本屆比賽
所以本場比賽會有多困難?視乎 U20 法國怎樣準備此場比賽 - 如果他們打算儘早確保出線他們會精銳盡出;不過如果他們希望為來季打算他們會派上 19yo 球員,好像 U20 英格蘭 (已在 Group 2 剩 4 週下出線) 及有些已於第一週已用上 19yo 球員的球隊 ( U20 德國、 U20 荷蘭 等...)
當客隊可以作出選擇,我們需要作出決定 - 在主場對 U20 法國 後會作客硬拼 U20 大洋洲 ,所以在這 2 場比賽中我們要決定怎樣平衡 TS 使用及取得分數 - 我們能否承受得起 PiC 輸波 (甚至 PiC 和波) ? / 如果我們打 Normal 能否確保保持不敗? / 如果我們打 Normal (無論甚麼賽果) 我們會否有足夠 TS 作客 U20 大洋洲?
面前我們有 4 場比賽決定能否往 波黑 進行 U20 世界盃比賽,我們會證明我們有能力勝出比賽及在此組晉級
希望大家多多支持,及歡迎各位在本帖發表對本場比賽的建議
Qualification - Group 5
MP GF GA GD P
1 U-20 France 10 31 11 20 24
2 U-20 Hong Kong 10 30 14 16 18
3 U-20 Oceania 10 20 13 7 16
4 U-20 Danmark 10 16 9 7 16
5 U-20 Island 10 15 13 2 14
6 U-20 Cabo Verde 10 10 21 -11 13
7 U-20 Crna Gora 10 11 24 -13 8
8 U-20 Rossiya 10 13 41 -28 6
hi all,
last week we won 4-2 over U-20 Island [matchid=298835073]
it's a very important match for both side, and away team tried to go aggressive, playing MOTS 3-4-3 Normal (3 IM + 1 WtM)
as we need to consider the coming fixtures (vs. U-20 France then @ U-20 Oceania), we opted for PiC 3-5-2 Normal, and go for 2 CD to protect more in central defence
we have a very good start, 羅 (Luo) 醒番 (Xingfan) [playerid=261504446] trickled a Quick+Pass SE at 2', then go for Quick SE at 32' to give us 2-0 lead
despite U-20 Island scored 1 freekick at 1 minute after, we responded by 2 right-side-attack goal before half-time (and triggered pullback), and we just have 51% possession in 1st half
in 2nd half away team withdrew a FW and entered 1 right-side winger, and it rewarded them 1 goal on right-side before hour mark, however the game went boring after 2-4 goal and it's the final score, with possession evenly split
the game was not as easy as the result shown, and i think our victory is helped by our 2 CD that defended much on their central attack well, also our Quick FW - 羅 (Luo) 醒番 (Xingfan) [playerid=261504446] - contributes 2 SE goals
the biggest surprise last week is not our PiC win over MOTS, U-20 Cabo Verde did another victory by their ultra-defensive tactics, a familiar 1-0 win over U-20 Danmark by another SP goal, making U-20 Hong Kong advances to #2 on the standing
next week we'll host U-20 France [matchid=298835076]
before analyzing this game we may have a look at qualification, U-20 France shall be safe to qualify with 4pt in last 4 games, and numerically they need 5pt; where what U-20 Hong Kong wants is a double of what U-20 France needs - 8pt shall be okay and 10pt would theoretically guaranteed
the group is divided into 4 class -
- U-20 France is 99% qualified and their focus would be avoid losing games and threw away 7-8pt advantage, as well as allocating valuable experience points to their 19yos for next season;
- U-20 Hong Kong, U-20 Oceania and U-20 Danmark competes for 1 spot, and U-20 Hong Kong has to visit 2 latter teams and fortunately we have TS advantage;
- U-20 Island vs U-20 Cabo Verde this Friday would see the winner between #5-#6 would have outside chance;
- bottom 2 has given up in this season
so how difficult this game would be? really depends on how U-20 France plans for - if they want to secure early qualification they will play strongest lineup; but if they are looking forward to next season they will likely play 19yos like U-20 England (qualified @ Group 2 with 4 weeks left) and some teams already playing 19yos at matchweek 1 (U-20 Deutschland, U-20 Nederland, etc...)
when away team are choosing from options, we have to make decision - after hosting U-20 France we will travel to U-20 Oceania, so in between these 2 games we have to balance usage of TS and obtaining points - can we afford to PiC loss (or even PiC draw?) / can we guarantee not to lose if we play Normal? / if we play Normal (and no matter what result) do we have enough TS to visit U-20 Oceania?
we still have 4 big games ahead to decide can we go to Bosna i Hercegovina for later rounds of U-20 World Cup, and we'll show we are capable to win the games as well as qualify in this group
i hope everyone would support U20 HKG, and feel free to voice your opinion on how shall we play this Friday! |
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