Top 25 free agents in 2007: Carter, Billups to bolt?
While the season has just started, next summer is already a hot topic. With the deadline having just passed for players from the class of 2003 (LeBron, D-Wade, Melo, et al.) to ink extensions, we know with much more clarity just who will be on the market. And since players such as Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis and Darko Milicic have been in the news talking about their situations, it's high time we sized up the free agent class again.
This summer's big player figures to be Milwaukee -- the only team that has both gobs of cap room and projects to contend for the 2007 playoffs. Memphis also has cap space and figures to return to prominence with a full year from Pau Gasol. Charlotte, Atlanta and Seattle also hold more than the midlevel exception, and it's possible Orlando could depending on how the Magic handle Milicic's restricted free agency.
There's no question who the Bucks' primary target is -- faster than you can say "tampering," Detroit's Billups already has taken note of the Bucks' salary-cap windfall next summer. He's the marquee free agent in what shapes up as the best class in a while -- and in an era when nearly every good player is locked up with an extension, perhaps the best for some time.
Here's a look at the top 25 players. This list has changed some from my last edition based on changes in playing time and production, and the deletion of a few players who signed extensions and are now off the market.
(p) -- Has player option for 2007-08
(r) -- Has rookie contract that could be extended before season
(t) -- Would have to sign one-year tender to be free agent next summer
1. Chauncey Billups, Pistons (p): I got a lot of e-mails on my last list asking why Billups ranked ahead of the more spectacular Vince Carter, but if you're dropping $70 million you'd rather have a guy you know won't tank any games.
Billups has an opt-out that he's certain to use because he's making only the midlevel right now, and the battle for his services should come down to the Bucks and Pistons.
2. Vince Carter, Nets (p): There's been a lot of talk about Vince's going back to his roots in Orlando, but the Magic would need to do some wheeling and dealing to clear enough cap space to get him. That puts Orlando in the "possible but not terribly likely" category.
Instead, Charlotte might be the more appealing prospect -- the 'Cats are up-and-coming and have a glaring hole at shooting guard. Of course, he always just could stay in New Jersey -- he has until June 30 to sign an extension with the Nets.
3. Rashard Lewis, Sonics (p): Lewis has a player option that he's almost certain to use, and the news that he won't negotiate an extension seems to be his way of saying that OKC ain't OK with him. He's probably Plan B for the Bucks and Bobcats if their first targets fail, and could be a target for the Grizzlies, too.
4. Gerald Wallace, Bobcats (p): Wallace is hugely underrated but will have a chance to earn a big payday with a strong 2006-07 by opting out of his midlevel deal. The Bobcats might not want him back anyway because he plays the same position as Adam Morrison, but a team such as Memphis sure could use him. For that matter, so could the Sonics if Lewis leaves.
5. Darko Milicic, Magic (r): Among former lottery picks, Milicic is the rare restricted free agent who hasn't signed an extension. He will be a hot commodity if he flashes even a portion of the potential that made him the second overall pick in the epic class of 2003.
Right now he's the leading contender to get an insane offer from the Hawks or Bobcats, leaving the Magic deciding whether to match and overpay or lose the asset.
6. Mike Bibby, Kings (p): Bibby has an opt-out that he's likely, but not certain, to use depending on his success in 2006-07 -- there are still two years left on a deal that pays him well, but he may want to lock in another big payday now. There's a decent chance he stays put, with Sacramento's performance this season going a long way toward determining his next step.
7. Antawn Jamison, Wizards (p): Another guy who is 50-50 to opt out, Jamison has one year left at the max but might want to lock in his long-term money right away. I imagine he'd stay in Washington unless he was given a really compelling reason to leave.
8. Grant Hill, Magic: A wild card on this summer's market, Hill was an afterthought because of his near-constant state of injury until he started this season like gangbusters. We've seen this movie before, but if Hill can make it through the season healthy he's going to get a lot of attention. Look for contenders to target him with a short-term deal.
9. Anderson Varejao, Cavaliers (r): Execs love the mop-topped Brazilian because of his hustle and energetic play. The Cavs couldn't extend him because he was a second-round pick, but they'll be able to match any offer as he's a restricted free agent, which in the past has been enough to stifle most bidding.
10. Maurice Williams, Bucks: Few players have had more motivation to play for their own stats than Williams, who not only will be a free agent after the year but knows darn well that his team likely will be kissing him goodbye to pursue Billups. He should have a good walk year, though, because T.J. Ford's departure handed him the point guard job. Incidentally, this could set off a big game of point guard musical chairs, especially if Bibby changes teams, too.
11. Andres Nocioni, Bulls (r): Nocioni is in the same position as Varejao, and should command at least the midlevel exception -- especially if he can work his way back into Chicago's starting lineup. One thing to keep an eye out for here would be a sign-and-trade, as he plays the same position as rising stud Luol Deng.
12. Bonzi Wells, Rockets (p): Wells' deal with Houston lets him get back on the market right away, but he can kiss that five-year, $36 million offer from Sacramento goodbye. He'll have to hope he can put together a good year and get the midlevel, and even then it might be only a four-year deal.
13. Antonio McDyess, Pistons (p): The departure of Ben Wallace should increase the Dice Man's minutes, which should give him a nice opportunity to sign one final big contract by opting out of his current midlevel deal.
14. Travis Outlaw, Trail Blazers (r): Maybe I'm overreacting to his strong start, but Outlaw is going to get a lot of attention if he keeps playing this well. I understand Portland's reluctance to extend him based on how poorly he played last year, but it could prove costly this summer.
15. Morris Peterson, Raptors: You could do worse for the midlevel exception than get a steady guard who plays defense, hits the open shot and never misses a game. Several players of this type are available this summer, but Peterson is the best and youngest of the bunch.
16. Primoz Brezec, Bobcats (p): He's out of the lineup because of exhaustion right now and will have to retake the Bobcats' starting center job if he wants a big payday. But he's 7-2, so somebody will pay him.
17. Jerry Stackhouse, Mavericks: He might get the full midlevel based on his reputation, but his age, lack of durability and poor shooting percentages make him an iffy proposition in my mind.
18. Earl Boykins, Nuggets (p): Because he's making peanuts, it's a no-brainer for him to opt out, but Boykins really won't reap the financial benefits unless he can show he's more of a point guard than a one-man shot-creating machine.
19. Chris Mihm, Lakers: Mihm dropped a few notches since my last list because he's been out after ankle surgery, but if he can match last year's numbers when he comes back he'll be a very wealthy man.
20. Luke Walton, Lakers: Walton heads into his walk year with a starting job, an established role, and a number of prominent TV games. That's about all you can ask for heading into free agency -- now he just has to produce. His rep as a glue guy who gives up the ball should help him.
21. Melvin Ely, Bobcats: Ely took the Bobcats' one-year tender after a frustrating trip through restricted free agency and will try again next summer. He might not get the midlevel, but he'll get paid if he can match what he did last year. However, he didn't seem in great shape when I saw him this weekend.
22. Jamaal Magloire, Trail Blazers: Big, slow centers aren't as in vogue these days so his stock has been steadily slipping, but there aren't a lot of quality big men on the market next summer so he'll get some attention.
23. Eddie Jones, Grizzlies: The veteran guard has kept himself in shape and can still hit the outside shot, and recent history shows wings who can defend have been well rewarded -- look at the deal Greg Buckner got.
24. Michael Finley, Spurs: The veteran wingman got a two-year, $5 million deal in his last go-round, but that was when most teams were already out of money. This time he might get a more lucrative deal, even though he's declining.
25. Desmond Mason, Hornets: He's an athletic wing who can defend, and that alone will earn him some attention, but he's got to start making some shots if he's going to get the big money.
Best of the rest: Mickael Pietrus (r), Chuck Hayes, Ruben Patterson, Ronny Turiaf, James Posey, Steve Blake, Austin Croshere, Joe Smith.
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發表於 2007-3-5 01:23:42
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